"There is a shortage of iPhones in Apple’s stores in the United States. And there is a surplus of frenzied speculation about what this means. Many wonder whether Apple is closing out of its existing stock in order to clear the way for new models, possibly with the ability to connect to faster 3G networks.
Gene Munster, the analyst at Piper Jaffray, said that of the possible explanations for the shortage there is an “80 percent chance that a new version of the iPhone is coming earlier than anticipated.”
A.M. Sacconaghi Jr., of Sanford C. Bernstein, looked into the same question, however, and came to the opposite conclusion. He noted that AT&T’s stores and Apple outlets outside of the United States have plenty of iPhones.
An inventory shortage of Apple products often signals an imminent product refresh, but in this case, the stock-out seems too selective: Apple’s distribution partners would likely be extremely upset if Apple managed the product transition only for its own stores. In addition, the 3G iPhone would arguably be more important for the European market; yet the current-generation phone remains widely in stock in Europe.
Mr. Sacconaghi concludes that Apple is more likely to have a temporary shortage of the iPhones than to be deliberately clearing out all of the current models.
Why starve Apple stores in favor of those from AT&T? Maybe Apple’s contract guarantees AT&T some minimum level of supply, he wrote. Even more plausibly, there is accounting: Every phone shipped to AT&T counts as revenue for Apple. But an unsold phone on the shelf in an Apple store does not. So if Apple is looking for maximum boasting rights in its first-quarter results, it might well have diverted scarce iPhone stock to AT&T, at least at the end of March.
Still, if you are holding out for whatever iRabbit Steve Jobs pulls out of the iHat next, Mr. Sacconaghi says your wait is coming to an end. Like most other analysts, he expects a new 3G iPhone model to be introduced “around mid-year.”
By the way, I sent an e-mail to Apple asking if it would reveal the truth behind the Mystery of the Missing iPhones. No answer yet.
Steve Dowling from Apple called back. “We are working to replenish iPhone supplies as quickly as we can,” he said to me reading the same statement he offered to others. “Our stores continue to receive shipments almost every day.”
I then tried to flesh out this statement a bit. Do you confirm that those shipments to the stores are inadequate to meet demand? Why is there a delay on your Web site in shipping the iPhone? Is there a shortage of components? Is a model change imminent? Is there an accounting reason to prefer shipping to AT&T vs Apple stores?
“I’ll just leave it at my statement,” Mr. Dowling said."
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